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Report File
Title Full
Independent Evaluation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Tornado Forecasting and Warning Services
Date Issued
Submitting OIG
Department of Commerce OIG
Agencies Reviewed/Investigated
Department of Commerce
Components
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Report Number
OIG-25_026-I
Report Description

Our objective was to assess National Weather Service (NWS) tornado forecasting and warning performance and identify potential opportunities for enhanced effectiveness. We contracted with the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), an independent firm, to perform this evaluation. Our office oversaw the evaluation’s progress to ensure that IDA performed it in accordance with the Council of the Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency’s Quality Standards for Inspection and Evaluation (December 2020) and contract 
terms.

Since fiscal year 2011, the NWS has achieved its Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) performance goal for false alarm ratio in 9 of the last 12 years. However, the NWS has consistently fallen short of meeting performance goals for probability of detection and warning lead times for this same time period. In addition to the NWS’s limited effectiveness in forecasting and warning performance, NOAA lacks official outcome metrics to assess progress toward the Tornado Warning Improvement and Extension Program's goal of reducing the loss of life and economic losses from tornadoes, leaving this goal unmet without further improvements.
 

Report Type
Inspection / Evaluation
Agency Wide
Yes
Number of Recommendations
6
Questioned Costs
$0
Funds for Better Use
$0
Report updated under NDAA 5274
No
External Entity
IDA
External Link
https://www.oig.doc.gov/reports/?entry=37341

Open Recommendations

This report has 6 open recommendations.
Recommendation Number Significant Recommendation Recommended Questioned Costs Recommended Funds for Better Use Additional Details
1. Yes $0 $0

We recommend the NOAA Deputy Under Secretary for Operations direct the Assistant Administrators for the NWS and OAR to
develop a detailed implementation plan on how to achieve the TWIEP Plan’s activities using time-bound goals with clear resource expectations, relevant control activities, and performance measures.

2. Yes $0 $0

We recommend the NOAA Deputy Under Secretary for Operations direct the Assistant Administrators for the NWS and OAR to
develop loss of life and economic loss performance metrics to support performance assessment.

3. Yes $0 $0

We recommend the NOAA Deputy Under Secretary for Operations direct the Assistant Administrators for the NWS and OAR to
revise existing policies (e.g., Policy on Research and Development Transitions, Products and Services Change Management, Verification, and Termination of NWS Information Services) to evaluate the operational performance impacts associated with research investments that have transitioned to operations.

4. Yes $0 $0

We recommend the NOAA Deputy Under Secretary for Operations direct the Assistant Administrators for the NWS and OAR to
conduct an assessment of how IDSS risk communication efforts for tornado watches and warnings affect the public’s actions to reduce loss of life or property, and revise the IDSS Policy Directive as appropriate.

5. Yes $0 $0

We recommend the NOAA Deputy Under Secretary for Operations direct the Assistant Administrator for OAR to conduct an
assessment of existing processes for ensuring the consistent communication of key performance metrics and address identified gaps, such as the inaccurate public-facing GPRA tornado lead-time metric definition.

6. Yes $0 $0

We recommend the NOAA Deputy Under Secretary for Operations direct the Assistant Administrator for OAR to conduct an
assessment of potential lead-time metrics and determine which approach, or combination of approaches, is best suited for
facilitating representative performance assessment and external oversight.

Department of Commerce OIG

United States