For our audit on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Weather Service (NWS) hurricane forecast and warning performance, our audit objective was to assess NWS progress toward improving hurricane forecasts and warnings.
We found that NWS has made progress improving tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts since the Weather Act became law in 2017. Notably, NWS also extended its tropical weather outlook product, which provides tropical cyclone formation forecasts, by two days (from 5 to 7 days), made advancements in hurricane modeling, developed new means for communicating storm surge, and has taken early steps to incorporate social and behavioral science into its risk communications. However, we also found: I. National Hurricane Center has not extended tropical cyclone warnings and excludes performance measures that could help it better focus improvements on high-impact storms; II. National Hurricane Center has not ensured optimal usage of hurricane hunter aircraft; and III. NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program is insufficient to meet the Weather Act’s hurricane forecast and warning goal.
Open Recommendations
| Recommendation Number | Significant Recommendation | Recommended Questioned Costs | Recommended Funds for Better Use | Additional Details | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Yes | $0 | $0 | ||
| 1. We recommend the NOAA Administrator ensure that the National Weather Service assesses the extent to which tropical cyclone watches and warnings provide adequate advance notice to the public commensurate with NHC capabilities and emergency manager requirements and revises those products as warranted. | |||||
| 2. | Yes | $0 | $0 | ||
| 2. We recommend the NOAA Administrator ensure that the National Weather Service assesses its tropical cyclone forecast verification process to a) determine how best to measure performance excluded by current methodology, b) determine how best to verify tropical cyclone watches and/or warnings to better understand their effectiveness at protecting life and property, and c) implement process improvements as warranted | |||||
| 3. | Yes | $0 | $0 | ||
| 3. We recommend that the NOAA Administrator ensure that the National Weather Service develops and implements an oversight plan to monitor aircraft scheduling effectiveness, using the initial daily reconnaissance request sent to CARCAH as the baseline. | |||||
| 4. | Yes | $0 | $0 | ||
| 4. We recommend that the NOAA Administrator ensure that the National Weather Service specifies aircraft collection times critical to the forecast and warning production cycle in the NHOP. | |||||
| 5. | Yes | $0 | $0 | ||
| 5. We recommend that the NOAA Administrator ensure that the National Weather Service establishes a process with NOAA/OMAO and the AFRC to resolve observed aircraft scheduling deficiencies with an emphasis on meeting NHC requirements and documents the outcomes of these engagements. | |||||
| 6. | Yes | $0 | $0 | ||
| 6. We recommend the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere ensures the Deputy Under Secretary for Operations implements and maintains an HFIP executive governance agreement to formalize organizational roles, responsibilities, and goals for hurricane forecasting and warning improvement. | |||||
| 7. | Yes | $0 | $0 | ||
| 7. We recommend the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere ensures the Deputy Under Secretary for Operations establishes clear goals, desired outcomes, and reporting mechanisms for SBES initiatives intended to elicit action to reduce the loss of life and damage to property. | |||||
| 8. | Yes | $0 | $0 | ||
| 8. We recommend the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere ensures the Deputy Under Secretary for Operations evaluates how to integrate collection of socioeconomic data to align with NOAA’s institutional observations requirements process. | |||||
